Complete provisional election results in DRC released: Oppositions rejects while Kinshasa trembles

Posted by ethuin on December 9, 2011 · 7 Comments 

Those are the results, as issued by Rev. Daniel Ngoyi Mulunda, chairman of the CENI yesterday afternoon in Kinshasa. The proclamation of these results do affirm what has become obvious during the various partial results published within the last week. Incumbent President Joseph Kabila has realised a landslide win according to CENI numbers, having obtained 48% compared to 33% of Etienne Tshisekedi, 7% of Vital Kamerhe, and few shares of the remaining minor candidates, among them Kengo wa Dondo, Nzanga Mobutu, and Mbusa Nyamwisi.

As the widespread accusation of ballot stuffing, voter intimidation, and various other types of electoral fraud have been partially confirmed by electoral observer missions, all opposition candidates are rejecting the numbers. Most notably, Etienne Tshisekedi has called the elections false and nil, and proclaimed himself President-elect of the Democratic Republic of Congo. The most crucial question in that regard is, to which degree fraud and manipulation have influenced the provisional complete results.

This opens the challenge to identify possibly fraudulent “circonscriptions” (electoral districts) because most polling stations have not been covered sufficiently neither by opposition parties, nor national observers, nor international observers. The so-called “procés verbaux”, the signed statements confirming the related results polling station per polling stations have arrived late, causing the massive delays of CENI announcement, but also have been impossible to verify by independent sources as per now. In Katanga, Kabila’s apparent stronghold, results have partly showed some soviet-style shape, with many districts displaying close to or even numerally 100% for the incumbent (http://www.ceni.gouv.cd/resultats.aspx). Without doubt, Kabila is likely to have those districts due to kinship and fiefdom advantage (like the district of Kabalo which is supposed to be the home constituency of Kabila, or Kabongo, Malemba, and Manono) but the striking numbers are actually surprising.

In Kinshasa, the immediate reactions have been mixed. While a few Kabila supporters started to drive through the boroughs of Gombe, Kinshasa, and Barumbu – celebrating their candidate’s victory, most Kinois have sought shelter in their homes to escape possible post-electoral clashes. The latter though, have remained few up to this time, and mainly occured in the boroughs of Lemba, Limété (Tshisekedi’s neighbourhood), Kasa-Vubu, and Ngiri-Ngiri as well as at the main University campus. Most of the events have caused minor numbers of injured and a couple of dead people while demonstrators burnt tyres and attacked security forces who disproportionally stroke back. While reports in that regard have been confirmed, police chief Bisengimana has denied any victims and government spokesman Mende declared, the government will handle the crisis. Meanwhile, the country remains with an “officially” reelected President Kabila (who has not yet addressed press or population) and the “popular” President Tshisekedi who has called for civil inobedience, supported by second major opposition figure Kamerhe, and also Mobutu, in calling the results nil.

The next days are likely to experience an intensifying discourse about rhetoric supremacy, accompanied by civil protests and governmental repression. At this point, international mediation that aimed at pressing the CENI to deliver as credible numbers as possible has failed and anti-Western riots (against a couple of foreign shops in Kinshasa) has been among the reactions. The official results are to be declared by the Supreme Court – similarly to the CENI a body largely controlled by Kabila loyalists. A considerable change of results has therefore not be expected. Tshisekedi has already mentioned he will not call upon the Supreme Court since he does not want to provide legitimacy to an electoral hold-up and an undemocratic legal institution.

This means that both sides have – at least during the first day after results proclamation – decided to leave the classically “democratic” way of political discourse: Tshisekedi tries, though without inciting to violence (!), to transfer the political struggle to the streets in terms of uprising and demonstrations, while Kabila hides behind security forces and employs the CENI and the Supreme Court as his proper political agents. Thus, we do not witness a levelled process. As many broadcasters and newspapers have already begun to spread fears of violence, outrage, and civil war style circumstances in Kinshasa (and also other parts of the country) it has to be clarified that up to now, violence by both sides has been comparably few. The situation in Kinshasa in particular has not lost intensity but no actual outbreak in whatever terms can be confirmed. Most of the mentioned events in Lemba, Limété, Kasa-Vubu and Ngiri-Ngiri turned out to be local in nature and no coherent, violent orgy of protest has been witnessed by either of my informants in town. Most other reliable commentators as observable on Twitter complete this kind of picture. As to the security forces, they have to be criticised for reacting disproportionally strong towards civilian demonstrators, but no significant observation of concerted large-scale state violence has been reported by reliable sources. In addition, ever more strange rumours are spreading, i.e. the apparent arrival of Rwandan soldiers wearing Congolese uniforms, just to name one of the most popular ones. I have not been able to verify many of those but I kindly beg all people working on DRC in these days to be really careful as words do also have potential to wage war and “radio trottoire” is an important variable in Kinshasa’s political arena.